Joel Kotkin, writing in the Wall Street Journal, assessed the decline in world population and birth rates. He concluded that because the U.S. is at a 50% birth rate, far above all other first-world countries, the U.S. and our children will be fine on the world economic stage. Mr. Kotkin bases his conclusions on projections to the year 2050. As far as his comparison goes, he makes valid points. However, I think assessing economic and population trends up to, but not beyond 2050 is misleading. What happens to the U.S. in 2080 or 2110 when another two or three generations face the results of population loss?
Historically, population growth is the key to expanded economic success. The economic potential of a country or region is unlimited, but is always dependent upon a demand for products or services. When liberals speak as if there is a finite amount of money or resources available they ignore the human potential of America and motivated entrepreneurs, inventors and developers. In reality, there is infinite potential in a growing economy for both individuals and countries; but, only if there are consumers to purchase goods and services. With a declining and aging population the demand for all goods and services begins to fade away.
Certainly we face an immediate future where services are in demand for the baby boomer generation, but what will happen after they have passed on? While the human mind pretends that this will happen far into the future, the reality is that in a relatively short time span the U.S. will face a European existence.
In Europe entire towns have been shuttered because there is no demand for housing. In England health systems struggle under the burden of an aging population. Coupled with the lack of people trained to provide services or the financial resources to maintain basic levels of care the once great nation is a model of defeat. Latvia faces the very real possibility that it will disappear totally by 2050 because it is so far below replacement population rates. Other eastern European countries face a similar fate which promises to wipe out complete nationalities and cultures.
While the U.S. is not in as dire of a situation now, we must realize we are scheduled to arrive at the same place as Europe, just later. Throughout the history of the world countries which have experienced population declines have seen unusual economic hardship. Many were then over run, enslaved or their entire culture disappeared. So, personally, I don’t think the kids will be okay. Especially not beyond 2050.
A good expose on the effects of declining populations is the documentary, Demographic Winter.
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